AARI forecasts no harsh ice conditions on the Northern Sea Roue lanes
In the southeastern part of the Barents Sea and southwestern part of the Kara Seas, clean water is to remain until the end of October
A light and medium background for the development of ice conditions is expected in the Russian Arctic seas until the end of October 2023, according to the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI). No harsh ice conditions on the lanes of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) are expected, according to the AARI forecast.
The forecast of ice conditions in the Russian Arctic seas prepared by the scientists are used to make long-term plans of navigation along the Northern Sea Route. The ice forecast for the first half of the navigation period (from June to August) developed by AARI specialists in March and updated in June kept the users aware of predicted ice conditions with the forecast fully justified.
In the southeastern part of the Barents Sea and southwestern part of the Kara Seas, clean water is to remain until the end of October, says the forecast. Ice formation is expected to begin later than usually – in late October - early November.
In the northeastern part of the Kara Sea, the eastern part of the East Siberian Sea and the southwestern part of the Chukchi Sea, close-packed ice will disappear from coastal areas in late August – first half of September. Ice formation is expected to begin in the second decade of October.
Thus, in the second half of the navigation season, from the end of August to October, a light background of ice conditions development along the NSR will remain in the Barents Sea, the southwestern part of the Kara Sea, the Laptev Sea, and the western part of the East Siberian Sea. The average background of the development of ice conditions is expected in the northeastern part of the Kara Sea, the eastern part of the East Siberian Sea, and in the southwestern part of the Chukchi Sea. Severe ice conditions are not expected along the NSR routes.
The Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute - AARI is the world’s leading research institution in the field of comprehensive studies of the Polar regions. In 1994 the AARI has obtained the status of State Research Center of Russia. From 2017, AARI has been headed by RAS Professor Aleksandr Makarov.
