Demand for Eastern Polygon traffic to exceed capacity by 70-80 million tonnes after 2025 - expert
The potential of cargo redirection to NSR to make 55 million tonnes by 2040
In the near future, the change of cargo flows in the Russian Federation may lead to an excess of cargo in the Eastern Polygon up to 80 million tonnes. The bulk of that volume could go to the Arctic ports but various restrictions including infrastructural ones hindered that, Technologies of Trust partner Mikhail Bazhenov, said at the presentation of the Arkhangelsk Region in Moscow, the event organized by Far East and Arctic Development Corporation.
By 2040, the scope of cargo “running the risk of changing logistics chains and requiring new sales markets” will exceed 190 million tonnes, of which 187 million tonnes will be eastward bound cargo, said the expert. The bulk of those 187 million tonnes - 152 million tonnes - will be cargo sent to the Asia-Pacific Region due to sanctions and other restrictions, 15 million tonnes - sanctioned goods of Belarussian origin, 20 million tonnes - containerized cargo appearing due the restructuring of logistics chains.
According to Mikhail Bazhenov, the excess of cargo in the Eastern Polygon will make up to 80 million tonnes by the most conservative estimates. Those volumes will be distributed among the Northern Sea Route, Baltic Sea, Azov-Black Sea and North-South routes with the Arctic ports, Murmansk and Arkhangelsk accounting for about 55 million tonnes. The port of Arkhangelsk is expected to handle some 22.3 million tonnes.
However, the analyst notes that the growth of cargo flows in those ports is limited due to limited infrastructure capacity. The expansion of Murmansk Transport Hub with Lavna an tuloma terminals will let accept additional 22 million tonnes per year but its further growth is limited by the capacity of railways and remoteness from the key production areas. The port of Arkhangelsk is in a similar situation where the capacity of railway approaches is no more than 20 million tonnes.
