Competitiveness of gas as a marine fuel will grow over coming 10-15 years – expert
Availability of alternative fuels will be discussed at the dedicated conference of PortNews
Dmitry Grushevenko, expert of the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI RAS) will speak at the 6th LNG Fleet, LNG Bunkering and Alternatives conference with a report ”Long-term trends of the global LNG and hydrogen markets – volumes and prices”.
Even in today's reality, long-term agenda of global economy decarbonization and the energy transition remains relevant. Some experts believe that the increasing geopolitical tensions between the energy producing and consuming countries has spurred the rejection of imported energy in Europe and some Asian countries, having thus facilitated the transition to their own low-carbon energy sources for Europe and the U.S.
The processes of energy transition and decarbonization affect all segments of energy consumption without exception. Maritime transport was no exception. Today, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and methanol are already being used as alternatives to traditional fuels in the sector while introduction of hydrogen, ammonia, and other fuels are being under active consideration.
“Reactive changes in the global gas market, shortage of free supply volumes and a surge of LNG prices in the key markets raise concerns regarding a possibility to achieve relative competitiveness of gas as a marine fuel, or just its availability for bunkering companies on the mid-term and long-term horizon, - explains Dmitry Grushevenko. ‒ Nevertheless, forecast calculations ERI RAS show that the situation may change dramatically in the next 10-15 years. LNG supply in the global market is expanding: large-scale liquefaction facilities are being prepared for launching Qatar, USA, Australia and Russia which are the key suppliers. A total of 150 million tonnes can be available over the coming 5 years. Apart from the supply growth the market can face a decline in growth rates of global demand for natural gas, primarily due to the energy transition in Europe, switching to coal in China and some other APR countries. Altogether, that will lead to a reduction of global gas prices and recovery of LNG-powere ships’ competitiveness versus conventional ships, especially if the fines for emissions in the world’s key water areas are retained and toughened.”
As for hydrogen and hydrogen-containing fuels (ammonia and methanol), their prospects are still vague, according to the expert. “As of today, those products are quite expensive both in terms of their cost and market value. At the same time, their global markets are relatively small and their development is slow being mainly focused on the chemistry segment. Besides, neither the terminology base no regulatory documents have been completed in terms of carbon regulation of these types of fuel. For example, it is still not clear if the cheapest hydrogen produced from methane considered as a ‘clean’.”
Russia’s leading industry focused media group PortNews continues registration of delegates and speakers for its 6th conference “LNG Fleet, LNG Bunkering and Alternatives”. The event is held annually in partnership with Sovcomflot. In 2022, it will be held on November 2 at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation, Moscow. Gazprom supports the Conference as its General Partner.
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