MABUX releases Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 05
The bunker market weekly review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)
MABUX World Bunker Index demonstrated firm upward evolution over a week following the rise on oil prices globally. The 380 HSFO index rose from 365.37 USD/MT to 376.15 USD/ MT (+10.78 USD), VLSFO added 15.56 USD: from 460.94 USD/MT to 476.50 USD/MT while MGO gained 12.79 USD and rose from 516.85 USD/MT up to 529.64 USD/MT. Upward trend for Global Scrubber Spread (SS) (price difference between 380 HSFOs and VLSFOs) also continued: it widened by 2.56 USD and averaged 97.84 USD (95.28 USD a week ago).
Correlation between MBP (Market Bunker Prices) and DBP (MABUX Digital Benchmark) in four global largest hubs over the past week showed that 380 HSFO fuel was moderately undervalued in all selected ports, with Houston recorded a 100% correlation between MBP and DBP indices for the first time. In other ports, the undercharging of 380 HSFO ranged from minus $ 3 (Fujairah) to minus $ 12 (Rotterdam and Singapore). At the same time, the prices of VLSFO fuel grade, according to DBP Index, remained moderately high in all selected ports in the range from plus $ 9 (Rotterdam) to plus $ 21 (Houston). The DBP also showed MGO LS was undervalued in all ports ranging from minus $ 15 (Fujairah) to minus $ 28 (Singapore), with the exception of Houston (overcharged by $ 7). All in all, there are no drastic changes in MBP vs DBP correlation trends registered for VLSFO and MGO LS fuels so far.
In January, the DBP index at the Port of Rotterdam showed a slight undervaluation of 380 HSFO fuel and an overvaluation of VLSFO. 380 HSFO was undercharged by an average of $ 11.36 and VLSFO overcharging averaged $ 5.91. This trend continued in early February.
As per the International Maritime Organization (IMO), a total of 55 cases (FONAR) of very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) unavailability were recorded in 2020. Given that more than 60,000 ships plied the world's oceans in trade last year, this was a remarkably low percentage of ships encountering difficulty in obtaining compliant fuel. FONARs can be filed to a ship's flag state if it is unable to get compliant fuel at its next port of call but is not a guarantee of not being prosecuted by the flag or port state but will be taken into account.
