Cargo forecasts of some Arctic projects are overestimated being not supported with transport — expert
There is lack of ships, port fleet and handling facilities
When forecasting the development of the Northern Sea Route, the statements of some investors into the Arctic projects should not be taken on trust as the figures announced by them and real capabilities can be different, IAA PortNews correspondent cites Mikhail Grigoryev, Head of consulting company Gecon - Senior Research Scientist at IMEMO RAS, as saying at the 8th International Conference “Arctic-2023”.
According to the speaker, outlook on the NSR traffic based only on the investors’ data should be taken with some skepticism since some large projects are not supported with the fleet or transport infrastructure. For example, Vostok Oil and Syradayskoye field have no ships, port fleet or handling facilities. However, Vostok Oil plans to supply 30 million tonnes per year from 2024 although there are no tankers built for that and no ships of that kind in the orderbook of Zvezda shipyard. The same is true for the investors of the Syradayskoye field which promise to supply 7 million tonnes of coal in 2026,” he said adding that a number of other large-scale projects planned in the Arctic have the same problems. In this respect, he believes, it is necessary to revise the strategic tasks and the ways to manage the Arctic Zone.
The expert is also skeptical about the project on coal transportation from Siberia to Asia by the Yenisey river. “Although the project was approved by the Ministry of Transport and scheduled for launching in 2023, there is still a lot of doubt about how realistic it is. First of all, there are depth limits of 3 meters near the port of Lesosibirsk …, secondly, there is lack of cargo and towing ships, … thirdly, the capacity of port Dudinka is limited as well as the off-harbour transshipment in the mouth of the Yenisey,” he said.
According to the expert, further development of the Northern Sea Route is connected with the development of two fields, Novoportovskoye and South Tambey ones. “Therefore, mineral cargoes will account for 80% of the NSR traffic by 2035, with cargoes from the projects of Gazprom Neft, NOVATEK, Nornickel, Sabetta and others to account for 10%,” he said.
As Gajimagomed Guseinov, First Deputy Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East and Arctic, said at the Conference, the volumes of cargo carried by the Northern Sea Route expected by the government will grow to 90 million tonnes per year by 2024 and to about 216 million tonnes by 2030, taking into account the obligation of the cargo shippers and the expected growth of transit and other cargoes. Thus, the target to reach 80 million by 2024, 150 million tonnes by 2030, 220 million tonnes – by 2035 set for the annual cargo traffic on the Northern Sea Route, will be exceeded.
The Northern Sea Route is a single transport system in the Russian Arctic sector. It stretches along the northern coasts of Russia across the seas of the Arctic Ocean (Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, Chukchi seas). The route links the European ports of Russia with the mouths of navigable rivers in Siberia and the Far East. In August 2022, a plan for the development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) until 2035 was approved. The plan includes over 150 activities with total financing nearing RUB 1.8 trillion.
In 2022, the Northern Sea Route carried 34.034 million tonnes of cargo having exceeded the target set by the federal project “Northern Sea Route Development” by 2 million tonnes.
