Iron-ore ships rebound as China spends $158 bln
Iron-ore ships are poised to earn more than operating costs for the first time this year as rates rally on speculation Chinese steel mills will accelerate imports because of a 1 trillion-yuan ($158 billion) building program.
Capesizes, each carrying 160,000 metric tons of ore, will earn $12,500 a day in the fourth quarter, according to the median of eight analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg, compared with $4,459 on average since the end of June as assessed by the Baltic Exchange. Investors may profit by buying forward freight agreements, traded by brokers and used to bet on future costs, which anticipate $8,385. Ship owners need $7,437 to pay overheads including crew and repairs, a London-based unit of Moore Stephens LLP advising the industry estimates.
China, accounting for 65 percent of seaborne demand, bought the most ore in three months in August and stockpiles at ports fell for the first time since March, government and Shanghai Steelhome Information data show. Ore prices that neared a three- year low on Sept. 5 have since rallied 21 percent as the state announced spending on everything from subways to roads to warehouses. Increasing demand for the commodity, the second- biggest cargo after oil, will help diminish a glut in shipping.
“The 1 trillion-yuan package should provide a lifeline to struggling Capesize owners,” said Frode Moerkedal, an analyst at RS Platou Markets AS in Oslo whose recommendations on the shares of shipping companies returned 21 percent in the past two years. “Capesizes should benefit from the investment, as they’re the main vessel class to ship iron ore.”
Commodity Cargoes
Rates tumbled as much as 89 percent to $2,644 this year as fleet expansion outpaced growth in demand, according to the London-based exchange, whose data are used as benchmarks for about 75 percent of commodity cargoes. While Capesizes rallied 43 percent to $3,779 since Aug. 21, this quarter’s average would be the lowest for data going back to 1999. Earnings may rise as high as $25,000 in the next several months, said Omar Nokta, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York.
Ore at the Chinese port of Tianjin, a global benchmark, last traded at $105.10 a so-called dry ton, down from as much as $149.40 in April, according to The Steel Index Ltd., a unit of McGraw-Hill Cos. Prices, which retreated as China’s economy slowed for six consecutive quarters, rebounded after the government announced building plans on Sept. 5 and 6 that Nomura Holdings Inc. (8604) estimates are worth $158 billion.
Investors can profit from the rally in rates by buying shares of shipping companies with a higher proportion of their fleets operating in the spot market rather than on long-term charters, Nokta said. That includes Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc., Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. and Baltic Trading Ltd. (BALT), all based in New York, he wrote in a Sept. 10 report.
Morgan Stanley
Seaborne iron-ore exports will expand 14 percent next year, the most since at least 2005 and three times faster than in 2012, Morgan Stanley estimates. The Capesize fleet’s 8.6 percent expansion will be the smallest since 2009 and compares with 12 percent this year, according to the bank.
While the projected fourth-quarter Capesize rate would cover owners’ operating expenses, it wouldn’t be enough to also meet the cost of their debt. Once interest and loan repayments are included, the break-even level rises to $15,000 a day on average, according to Platou. Earnings last exceeded that in the final three months of 2011.
The combined market value of the 14-member Bloomberg Pure Play Dry Bulk Shipping Index has fallen to $5.92 billion from $36.2 billion in May 2008, data compiled by Bloomberg show. D/S Norden A/S, located in Hellerup, Denmark, Seoul-based STX Pan Ocean Co. and Antwerp, Belgium-based Cie. Maritime Belge SA are the largest members of the gauge.
Shipbrokers’ Association
Capacity gluts exist across most of the merchant shipping fleet. Rates for the largest oil tankers slumped 62 percent this year, according to Clarkson Research Services Ltd., a unit of the world’s largest shipbroker. An index reflecting charges for six types of containers fell 29 percent in the past year, a gauge from the Hamburg Shipbrokers’ Association shows. Moore Stephens estimates operating costs every September and its 2012 review has yet to be published. Daily expenses for Capesizes rose 1.7 percent to $7,437, it said in a report a year ago.
The rally in Capesizes and iron-ore prices may not last because growth is slowing around the world. The International Monetary Fund cut its 2013 global forecast to 3.9 percent from 4.1 percent in July. The 17-nation euro area contracted in the second quarter and won’t expand again for another year, based on the median of 22 economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg. China’s economy will expand 7.9 percent in 2012, the least since 1999, according to 34 economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
