Crimean prospects

Lots of different, sometimes opposite, opinions have been recently expressed on the future of Crimean ports.

Hoping for the best

Different sources say that seaports of Crimea handled 14 to 15.5 mln t of cargo in 2013. 

According to a general understanding amid the well-known situation, the operation of Crimean ports will reduce in the nearest years to supplying Crimea (4-5 mln t per year); development of cruise routes (Sevastopol, Yalta, Yevpatoria); transshipment in Kerch for loading of large capacity vessels.

The first factor is a necessity.

The second one is the most promising activity for the development of Crimean ports within relatively short period of time.

The last factor is underrated by many experts, yet it can play an important role in loading of Crimean ports. It also should be taken into consideration that the water area of Kerch port is a convenient location for bunkering of sea going vessels.

It is generally agreed that Sevastopol and Kerch are among the promising ports in Crimea. Many experts consider Feodosia and Yevpatoria as subordinate ports when it comes to development of Crimean ports. One could agree with this when it comes for the near-term outlook. However, the situation can change in the mid-term or long-term perspective and these ports would get a chance for entering a new development level.

The development of Crimean ports depends on several factors. First of all, it is a political situation in Ukraine. Amid positive circumstances, foreign trade cargoes could be delivered from Russia to Crimea via Ukraine. Besides, conventional cargoes can be delivered to Sevastopol.

Secondly, appearance of Chinese companies in the region and construction of a deepwater port (probably a hub) is considered today as one of the scenarios today. If it happens, it will boost the development of the Crimean ports. It seems that Donuzlav lake is likely to be the optimal place for construction of a deepwater port.

Thirdly, if a double-line railway port across the Kerch Strait is ready by 2017-2018, it can boost the transshipment of Russia’s foreign trade cargoes in Crimea.

Therefore, in the nearest future we can expect a decline Crimean ports’ throughput against the year of 2013, while in the mid-term or long-term perspective the ports of Crimea are likely to develop according to the above scenarios.

Gennady Kuzmin, Deputy Director General of Marine Bureau "Oil Terminals" Ltd