Douglas-Westwood says bright spots in oversupply in global drilling and production market
Douglas-Westwood has released the new quarterly update of World Drilling and Production Market Forecast (DWD&P) Continued outages in Nigeria, a rumoured OPEC production freeze as well as output reductions onshore US, due to bankruptcies and capital expenditure cuts amongst shale producers, have helped oil prices rally from record lows. As such, DW anticipates the first decline in onshore oil production since 2009. The oversupply is likely to increase once more in 2017 with a recovery in Nigerian production as well as large output additions from both OPEC and non-OPEC sources, DW said in a press release.
However, DW has identified several areas with stable activity in the medium-term. In Russia, demands for supply agreements with China and new LNG projects will lead to growth in gas-targeted drilling, offsetting decreases in oil-related activity. Western Europe will see offshore development drilling levels maintained due to a number of developments sanctioned before the oil price crash. Unsurprisingly, the Middle East will see strong drilling growth, both onshore and offshore, as the region’s OPEC members continue with their strategy of defending market share. This will lead to over 21,000 development wells drilled over 2016-2022, up 28% on the preceding seven-year period.
The production gains in Western Europe are just one example of an offshore region increasing production in the medium-term as a result of the positive effects of the last upcycle. Over 2016-2018, combined offshore oil and gas output will increase in all eight of the regions covered in DWD&P as a result of developments sanctioned in the ‘boom years’ of 2011-2014. It must be noted, however, that this poses a significant threat to oil price recovery over the next few years.
About DWD&P
The World Drilling and Production Market Forecast is based on detailed models and examines each country in turn, including a summary of hydrocarbon potential and sensitised production outlook. Associated development drilling requirements are segmented into oil & gas for the onshore sector and shallow vs. deep water depths for the offshore sector. Country-by-country exploration and appraisal (E&A) drilling forecasts for both the onshore and offshore sectors are also detailed.
About Douglas-Westwood
Douglas-Westwood carries out advisory work, strategy development, business research and analysis for the international energy industries. We are the leading provider of commercial and market due diligence on the oilfield equipment & services sector and also provide services to players in upstream and downstream oil & gas, power and renewables. In the past three years, DW have provided services worldwide on refinancing, M&A deals and IPOs exceeding $15 billion.
