Rising supertanker demand fails to reduce 20% vessel surplus
Strengthening demand for supertankers to load 2 million-barrel cargoes of Middle East crude oil failed to reduce a surplus of vessels competing for shipments. There are 20 percent more very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, seeking employment over the next 30 days than there are cargoes, according to the median estimate of seven shipbrokers, shipowners and derivative brokers surveyed by Bloomberg News. The surplus was the same Sept. 15.
“The tonnage oversupply is simply too much,” even though demand for tankers is “decent” in the Persian Gulf, Henrik With and Glenn Lodden, Oslo-based analysts at DnB NOR Markets, said in an e-mailed report today.
The excess has ranged between 15 percent and 25 percent since the start of the third quarter, compared with an average surplus of 11 percent in the first half of the year, according to previous surveys. Northern Hemisphere refineries are reconfigured during the third quarter to produce extra winter fuels, potentially causing their imports to decline temporarily.
Returns from the Saudi Arabia-to-Japan route have averaged $14,251 a day in this quarter and freight derivatives indicate fourth-quarter rental income of $23,575, according to data from the Baltic Exchange and Imarex ASA, an Oslo-based freight derivatives broker.
They averaged $10,267 a day in the third quarter of last year before more than doubling to $25,319 in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to the Baltic Exchange.
“The tonnage oversupply is simply too much,” even though demand for tankers is “decent” in the Persian Gulf, Henrik With and Glenn Lodden, Oslo-based analysts at DnB NOR Markets, said in an e-mailed report today.
The excess has ranged between 15 percent and 25 percent since the start of the third quarter, compared with an average surplus of 11 percent in the first half of the year, according to previous surveys. Northern Hemisphere refineries are reconfigured during the third quarter to produce extra winter fuels, potentially causing their imports to decline temporarily.
Returns from the Saudi Arabia-to-Japan route have averaged $14,251 a day in this quarter and freight derivatives indicate fourth-quarter rental income of $23,575, according to data from the Baltic Exchange and Imarex ASA, an Oslo-based freight derivatives broker.
They averaged $10,267 a day in the third quarter of last year before more than doubling to $25,319 in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to the Baltic Exchange.
